Irish milk volumes tipped into year-on-year decline in April 2026, similar to trends in Great Britain, analysis from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) shows.

AHDB said that a drop in farmgate milk prices has weighed on producer margins in Ireland, according to figures published by CLAL, an Italian dairy economic consulting firm.

Irish milk volumes since fell by around 1.5% in May, AHDB said.

It highlighted that the cumulative calendar year so far (January-May) now runs 0.6% behind last year, but 6.9% above 2024.

The board said: "Alongside the significant cut to average milk prices towards the end of 2025, input pressures have heightened.

"Fuel protests across Ireland in April led to further disruption, reportedly affecting feed supplies and milk collections.

"A fuel subsidy has since been arranged for farmers, covering the months of March to July to reduce some of the impact."

Milk prices

Milk prices fell sharply towards the end of 2025 milk production season and have remained at lower levels in the first half of 2026.

It is expected that the average milk prices in 2026 will be down approximately 20% on the average price level achieved over the course of 2025, having a large hit on dairy farm incomes, Teagasc has said.

The outlook for 2026 (published in December 2025) forecast Irish milk production to remain broadly unchanged from 2025 volumes.

AHDB noted that latest announced milk prices in Ireland look to show "tentative signs of improving, but remain at challenging levels".

"Temperatures have been above summer norms, but heat stress has been less severe than in Great Britain," AHDB said.

"However, with rainfall also having been low and Ireland dairy particularly reliant on grass-based systems, this is likely to be affecting supplies, and therefore milk production.

"On the positive side for producers, firm beef prices are likely to continue to support overall profitability."

Impact on Europe

AHDB noted Ireland as being a "significant player" in the European dairy market, accounting for 6.3% of EU dairy export volume in 2025.

Ireland is also a significant exporter to the UK market.

"Therefore, changes in production have knock-on effects to broader market dynamics," AHDB said.

"In Q1 2026, dairy export volume from Ireland rose by 36% year-on-year, primarily from increases to Vietnam, the USA and Egypt."

Overproduction

AHDB said that the wider picture in Europe and globally for dairy is still overproduction.

"The latest EU Commission short-term outlook estimates 1.6% growth for the 2026 year as a whole," it said.

"Growth is forecast to slow in the latter months but will have to be significant for the market to rebalance."