International grain prices are in a limbo state, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

They remained unchanged for the trading week that ended Friday, September 18.

UK November 2026 wheat futures closed at £209.75/t for the period in question.

Over recent days, markets have taken account of developments in the Black Sea and US harvest weather.

These factors may well continue to be relevant during the period ahead.

Hopes of improved Black Sea export flows weighed on prices. But concerns over the French maize crop and uncertainty around US harvest progress offered support.

As a result, nearby US wheat and maize futures fell by 1.5% and 0.5% respectively week-on-week. Meanwhile, nearby Paris milling wheat prices gained 0.2%.

Black Sea

Black Sea developments were a key source of volatility for grain markets.

Traders balanced continued Russian and Ukrainian attacks against hopes that a Turkish-backed truce on commercial shipping could reduce disruption and improve export flows.

Meanwhile, ongoing Russian and Ukrainian wheat shipments, including sizeable offers from Baltic ports, limited the market’s reaction to buying interest from Algeria and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the prospect of de-escalation encouraged speculative selling and reduced fund exposure.

Black Sea shipping and export flows remain a critical watch point for grain prices, according to the AHDB.

Maize

French maize conditions deteriorated further last week, with just 23% of the crop rated good or excellent by September 14.

This is another record low, and sharply below the 62% a year earlier.

However, the impact of the heat and drought is already well established.

The projected 42% year-on-year production decline is largely priced into the market. So, the latest data limited expectations of price increases.

Harvesting has also accelerated significantly, reaching 27% complete, versus a five-year average of 5%. This reinforced the focus on yields and physical availability.

A focus of the market right now is US maize harvest progress. The weather in the US Midwest is expected to remain unsettled over the coming week.

The US maize harvest was 8% complete as of September 13, slightly ahead of both last year and the five-year average. A further update is expected this evening.

Trump/Xi

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet in Washington today (September 24), with agriculture and tariffs expected to feature prominently in discussions.

According to AHDB, any progress towards lower Chinese tariffs or commitments to buy US agricultural goods, particularly soybeans, would be supportive for US oilseeds.

It could also improve the sentiment in the grain complex, including maize and wheat.

However, expectations remain cautious. Without clear commitments, the meeting could generate limited or short-lived market support.