Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) analysts have assessed the impact of consistently dry spring weather on winter wheat crops in the UK.
And there is a definitive trend emerging.
The very dry conditions this spring are a clear cause of concern for growers and industry.
For the UK overall, March and April 2025 had just 77.3mm of rain, the lowest volume for those months since 1974 (Met Office), with some areas receiving far less.
By May 13, this UK total for spring had only increased to 80.6 mm. The forecast now shows some rain for the end of May, but it is not clear where the spring total will end up.
Recent years with lower spring rainfall levels include 2022 (174mm or 76% of the long-term average), 2017 (189mm, 79%), 2011 (188mm, 79%), and 2010 (171mm, 72%).
Dry spring weather impacts
In 2022, a drier spring was followed by below usual rainfall in June, though with regular showers and above-average sunshine levels. Despite lower rainfall, prospects remained strong through to the end of June.
The proportion of winter wheat in a good/excellent condition remained over 80% from the end of March to the end of June.
Hot, dry weather into July negatively impacted crop conditions, particularly in the east of the country, and reduced yields for crops on lighter land.
But the strong start for winter crops helped give strong yield results overall.
Meanwhile, in 2017, winter crops had a good start and promising yield potential as the spring got underway. After a prolonged dry period, timely rain in mid-May and June helped return an above average UK yield.
In 2011, after a dry March and April, rain returned for Scotland, Wales, northern and western parts of England in May.
However, large areas of southern and eastern England remained dry leading to notable concerns for crops in these areas with low tiller numbers and delayed nitrogen applications. Wetter conditions returned in June.
This rain alongside cooler weather through June and into July helped to prolong the grain fill period and boost grain sizes, supporting both yields and quality.
Overall, the impacts of the dry spring in 2011 were less severe than expected.
The UK average wheat yield in 2011 was 7.7 t/ha, compared to the 2006–2010 average of 7.8 t/ha, while quality improved year-on-year, including higher protein and specific weights.
Wheat yields averaged 7.7t/ha across the UK in 2010, slightly below the previous five-year average of 7.9t/ha. Low spring rainfall was accompanied by cooler temperatures, which slowed development.
Rainfall was variable during the grain fill period, with wetter conditions to the north partially offsetting yield losses in the east.
Looking ahead to 2025 harvest
There is not a direct comparison available that can point to the likely impact of the dry weather we have had this spring.
However, past years show how dry springs can reduce yield and quality, such as grain protein levels, due to reduced nitrogen uptake.Â
So, given that spring 2025 has been much drier than other recent dry springs, it is very likely that the weather has already had an impact on crop performance.
But this is not the end of the story, June rainfall and temperatures, as well as sunshine levels, will also be important, and spring 2025 so far has been particularly sunny.
With the crucial ‘grain fill’ period still ahead, rain in the coming weeks could still have big benefits.
Though yellow rust is more prevalent, the dryness has also reduced disease pressure overall, which is a positive for crop potential.
