The global outlook for milk has improved with annual output likely to expand by 1.9%, Ornua said.
This will be driven by growth in the Americas and New Zealand, the latest Ornua Global Dairy Market Report outlines.
In the EU, milk flows stabilised in quarter two (Q2) and returned to growth in Q3.
The growth rate should slow, and annual output is unlikely to exceed +0.5%, Ornua said.
Global milk supply
Global milk supply increased by 2.8% in August driven by the Americas, New Zealand, and Europe.
EU collections lifted by 0.9% in July and about 2% in August compared to a low base.
Irish milk flows are expected to grow by about 3% in August against a low prior year base.
UK flows have been strong with output lifting by 5% in July and 5.8% in August.
In the US, collections increased by about 3.2% in August.
New Zealand’s production was stronger than expected in August as the season ramps up.
In Australia, production is likely to weaken further due to cost issues, weather, and farm exit rates.
In China, milk output is projected to fall in 2025, but there are signs of stability.
Global dairy imports
In the US, dairy imports are up 6% this year (January to July) driven by butter and cheese, Ornua said.
UK imports have been very strong this year driven by cheese, butter and liquid milk.
For the Middle East and Africa, trade is down this year.
For China, imports have improved in recent months, but there has been a shift from powders to fresh product.
In Southeast Asia, imports are marginally lower this year. Local economies are under pressure due to US-China trade tensions, Ornua commented.
Market outlook
Ornua said that while EU-27 milk flows are not excessively high compared to historic levels, they lifted noticeably in August.
Global flows are clearly stronger and there is more dairy product available from Europe, New Zealand, and the US.
European retail sales are solid, but the rate of growth eased. Exports are flat, while foodservice remains under pressure.
European dairy commodity pricing is back in line with global and historic levels.
