England will experience worse levels of drought next year if this winter is drier than normal, the Environment Agency (EA) has warned.
The environmental regulator has released its Drought Prospects Report, examining the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.
Despite recent rainfall, the drought situation across the country is still precarious following a record dry spring and a continued run of heatwaves and dry weather throughout the summer.
Drought is only over when water levels are fully replenished, and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of 10 months so far this year.
This means that flooding in drought is possible, including flash floods, as dry soils struggle to soak up intense downpours, the environmental regulator warned.
Rainfall scenarios
The new report analyses three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions ahead of next year’s traditionally drier months.
The analysis shows that without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought, with widespread impacts felt by farmers, businesses, consumers, and nature.
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue to play their part and use water wisely through winter, in anticipation of another drought year.
Director of Water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham, said: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.
“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.”
Wakeham added that the public “have been brilliant” in using a little less water this summer and following restrictions in some parts of the country.
“I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside,” she said.
“Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”
Flexibility
Country Land and Business Association (CLA) president Victoria Vyvyan said: “The Environment Agency needs to grant farmers more flexibility on abstraction licences to capture available water during high-flow conditions, not only when flood warnings are in place, and better resource its abstraction licencing unit.
“Government departments need to work together to make it easier and cheaper for farmers to build small on-farm reservoirs.”
Vyvyan highlighted that the “unprecedented dry conditions” experienced by parts of the country in 2025 “are proving extremely challenging” for farmers.
“Urgent action is needed to minimise the impact of future drought on food production and nature recovery.
“Most farmers have already committed to next year’s cropping, and have limited opportunity to adapt this,” the CLA president said.
