Global wheat markets start to strengthen slightly

The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has confirmed a slight strengthening in global wheat markets over recent days.

Markets were mainly supported by weather risks for winter crops in the US and Ukraine.

In Ukraine, weather has been extremely cold recently, with some regions experiencing low levels of snow cover or ice crusts on the snow, which could affect winter crop conditions.

In addition, according to AHDB, competition between the main wheat exporters – the US, Canada, Argentina, the EU, Australia and the Black Sea region – remains strong, and the influence of currencies is once again apparent.

The euro has been strengthening against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2021 on Tuesday, February 3, which make EU wheat less competitive than that of other exporters.

Wheat

Meanwhile, the EU Commission’s January forecast increased EU common wheat ending stocks by 1.3Mt to 13.0Mt for the 2025/2026 season, compared to December’s figures.

This is primarily due to a reduction in common wheat exports, which are now estimated at 29.5Mt, down from 31.0Mt.

An agricultural consultancy SovEcon updated its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/2026 season, increasing it by 1.1Mt to 45.7Mt, due to the strong pace of shipments and higher-than-expected crop figures.

SovEcon also set its initial forecast for wheat exports in the 2026/2027 season at 39.6Mt.

In the short-term, the pace of maize exports from the US and the weather in Argentina and Brazil are important factors to consider. More rain is needed to support maize crop development in parts of Argentina after below-normal rainfall in January.

Rapeseed

Meanwhile, UK rapeseed production remains in the doldrums.

Last autumn (2025) saw a 40-year low in the estimated crop area planted out.

However, year-on-year yield increased were recorded on most farms for the 2024/2025 season.

As a consequence, an increase in UK rapeseed production in 2025 may lead to fewer imports during the 2025/2026 season

However, global demand has put pressure on rapeseed prices since the beginning of the 2025/2026 season.

From July 2024 to June 2025, the UK imported 942 kilotonnes (Kt) of rapeseed, up by 27% from the previous season.

Almost 57% of this came from the EU. The main origins were the Netherlands (175Kt), France (104Kt), Latvia (77Kt), Romania (62Kt), Lithuania (57Kt) and Ireland (46Kt).

From non-EU counties, the main origins were Ukraine (343Kt) and Uruguay (64Kt).

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