Report: Delayed spring calving added to EU milk flows in late 2025

Delayed spring calving because of various outbreaks of bluetongue in the EU combined with “good economics” added to milk flows in late 2025 according to a report.

Latest research from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) shows that supplies of dairy products across the EU continued to strengthen during the third quarter of 2025.

This was primarily due to higher milk production, rising imports and subdued export demand according to AHDB.

Its latest market analysis showed an increase of 10.2% in total dairy exports on the continent in the third quarter year-on-year.

AHDB stated that “good availability of butter and skim milk powder (SMP) boosted exports, while exports of cheese and whole milk powder (WMP) eased amid subdued demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and some Asian countries.”

The development board noted that EU milk deliveries rose by 2.3% in the third quarter year-on-year, which boosted milk production.

Butter

According to AHDB, butter supplies were boosted by higher milk production alongside increased imports, which more than offset the 5% increase in exports.

Another impact that led to the rise in imports of butter in the EU was a supply of cheap butter originating from the US.

Overall, available butter supplies were reported to have increased by 13.5% (58,000 tonnes) in the third quarter year-on-year.

Cheese

Similarly, cheese imports were also elevated in Q3 due to “a large increase in production and higher imports, with higher milk fat and protein availability contributing to higher production levels as well.

“Exports of cheese were reported to be lower during the period, with softening demand noticed from South Korea, Japan, Chile, the USA and Algeria,” AHDB added.

Milk powders

SMP supplies increased by 15.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of last year, driven by higher production and imports, which rose by 10.5% and 44.4% respectively.

Exports of SMP, which surged by 8.1% in Q3, increased in mainly Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.

While production of WMP did decline by 9.5%, imports rose by 15.2% to counterbalance this.

WMP exports were reported to be lower following strengthening of the euro and weak demand from the major importers, with less of a demand in Bangladesh, China, Nigeria, South Africa and some countries in MENA during that period.

Looking ahead

According to its latest medium-term agricultural report, the EU expects milk fat availability to increase by 2.6% and the availability of protein solids to increase by 1.8% in the coming decade.

AHDB noted that this expectation “add to the forecast increase in the production of dairy commodities.”

The board added: “Overall, the medium-term outlook looks bright, with growing demand for proteins and value-added products. However, this will be subject to the ongoing geopolitical situation in global markets”.

But it has also warned that China’s imposition of import tariffs on EU cheese and high fat milk and cream is likely to have knock on implications.

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