The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is reporting that the 2025 grain harvest continues to gather pace across Europe and North America.
France is on course for a strong 2025 harvest. Soft wheat production is forecast at 32.6 megatonnes (Mt), up 27% on last year’s rain-hit harvest and 2.4% above the five-year average. Barley output is also expected to rise to 11.8Mt, a 19% year-on-year increase.
Favourable weather has accelerated harvest progress. By July 07, 36% of France’s soft wheat had been cut, compared with just 4% at the same time last year and a five-year average of 15% at this point in the season
However, EU wheat exports are off to a slow start this season, with just 246Kt shipped by July 13, down from 1.12Mt last year. French figures are not yet included.
Meanwhile, trade organisations in Russia are reducing that country’s 2025 wheat production forecast to 84.0Mt. This is down from a previous estimate of 84.5 Mt.
The revision reflects ongoing drought in key southern regions. Export projections have also been slightly reduced in line with the lower output.
US crop update
According to AHDB analysts, the US winter wheat harvest reached 63% completion by July 13, just below the expected 64%.
This is up from 53% the previous week, but still behind last year’s 70%. Spring wheat conditions were rated 54% good to excellent, better than market expectations, but well below the 77% reported at the same point last year.
Recent rainfall has helped ease concerns over drought-related yield losses for US maize crops.
Crop conditions held steady with 74% rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and ahead of last year’s 68%.
Trade tensions
Meanwhile, the US administration has announced a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1.
It has also threatened further tariffs on Russia’s trade partners if the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved. These developments could weigh on global grain demand and prices.
These developments have coincided with the publication by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) of its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Projected global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 1.2Mt to 261.5Mt compared to June figures. This is mainly due to reductions in Canada and the EU.
Compared to June, forecasted lower production in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran offset higher production in the EU, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Russia.
