A new study examining the reasons behind why dairy farmers exit the industry has highlighted the central role that a lack of control, autonomy, and self-efficacy play in determining a farmer’s decision to leave.
The study, entitled ‘Why dairy farmers leave the industry: The role of control, autonomy, and self-efficacy’ was undertaken by researchers from Bournemouth University Business School and the University of Surrey, one of whom included a dairy farm business owner.
According to the research published in the Journal of Rural Studies in February 2025, the number of dairy farms in the UK has fallen by 56% in the last 20 years, which the paper stated was a trend replicated across Europe.
This trend conflicts with the rising demand for dairy products globally, with the study authors pointing to forecasts suggesting continuing demand growth of 1.2% per annum over the next five years, as well as the significant role dairy farmers play in supporting national food security.
While existing literature has identified various economic, social, and health factors causing dairy farmers to exit their profession, this paper claimed to have established the most prominent factors behind the phenomenon and accounted for their supposed confluence.
The factors the findings identified included profitability; compliance and regulation; milk price; investments; mental and physical health; availability of labour; animal welfare; anti-dairy sentiment; succession; milk contracts; climate change; and family pressures.
While working conditions, resources, and the individual factors identified above were seen as contibuting to farmers’ decision to leave the industry, the study argued that it is the confluence of these factors, mediated by perceived stress and health outcomes, that resulted in departure.
The study also found that a perceived lack of autonomy amplified dairy farmers’ intention to leave the sector.
The farmers studied admitted to feeling powerless over key aspects of their businesses, particualry aspects imposed by external actors, such as milk contracts and governmental agencies, which culminated in working conditions being perceived as more stressful.
The study used ‘milk prices’ to illustrate this argument, indicating that the unpredictable and uncontrollable nature of milk prices was deemed the most challenging aspect, rather than the price itself.
They explained that farmers in the sample were keen to state the overall profitability of their businesses, but felt a lack of control in establishing the price of their product on markets, which affected consideration to depart the industry.
Dairy farmers
This data was based on a questionnaire of 335 current and former dairy farmers in the UK, followed by in-depth interviews with 21 UK dairy farmers that have departed the industry.
The questionnaire was developed based on a comprehensive review of existing literature on the factors leading farmers to leave the industry early, complemented with literature on farmer wellbeing, the researchers explained.
According to the report, in the last decades, the UK experienced a significant decrease in the number of dairy cows, with the total number falling from 2.6 million in 1996 to 1.8 million in 2023.
This decline in cow numbers was coupled with an even greater reduction in the number of dairy producers, which fell from 35,700 in 1995 to 11,900 in 2020, a stark 67% reduction.
Given that most businesses with smaller herds have left the industry, the report found that this translated into an increased national herd size, from an average of 75 cows in 1996 to 170 cows in 2023.
The authors of the study stated that these changes have, however, been accompanied by increased productivity, with the milk yield per cow increasing by 100% from 1975 (4,000 litres) to 2020 (8,000 litres), meaning the overall national milk production has increased by 14% in the same time period.
With farm numbers and cow numbers reportedly declining “drastically” across Europe, the authors asserted that the dairy industry is “under threat”, understanding the reasons driving farmers’ decisions to leave was branded as key to ensuring the continued viability of the sector.
