The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is pointing to an enhanced production environment for grains.
These sentiments are featured in the June 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
Significantly, the US wheat outlook for 2026/2027 projects smaller supplies and, with no other changes to the balance sheet, lower ending stocks are projected.
However, on an international basis, all categories of the 2026/2027 global wheat balance sheet are raised this month.
Supplies are projected up 1.7 million tonnes to 1,100 million, mainly on increased production for Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, which is partly offset by lower production in Australia and Pakistan.
Total wheat production in Russia is raised 2.0 million tonnes to 88.0 million, as near-ideal weather conditions and above-average rainfall support a higher yield forecast for winter wheat despite a reduction in spring wheat harvested area.
Production in Turkey is raised 1.5 million tonnes to a record 22.5 million and Ukraine is raised 0.5 million to 23.5 million, both based on favourable spring weather.
Meanwhile, in Australia, wheat production projections have been lowered 2.0 million tonnes to 28.0 million, based on a lower harvested area.
Global consumption of wheat is raised 1.4 million tons to 824.6 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use in Russia.
World trade comes in at 0.3 million tons higher at 212.0 million on increased exports for Ukraine and other countries partially offset by lower exports for Australia.
Projected 2026/2027 global ending stocks are raised 0.4 million tons to 275.4 million mostly on increases for Egypt and Turkey that are partially offset by lower stocks in Ukraine, Australia, Russia, and the US.
Coarse grains
The June 2026 WASDE projects a US maize outlook that is virtually unchanged relative to the previous month.
Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026/2027 reflect mostly offsetting trade and domestic use changes for 2025/2026, with adjustments to imports, maize used for ethanol, and exports based on data to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2026/2027 is forecast 5.8 million tonnes higher, or 1.594 billion.
The June foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to the previous month.
International corn production will be higher, reflecting an area increase for India.
In thr context of 2025/2026, maize production estimates have been increased by the USDA for India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay but lowered for Mexico.
For India, production is higher based on the latest information from the government that indicates a sharp increase in area and higher yield.
Projections for Brazil are increased, reflecting a boost in production expectations for the first and second crops.
Argentina’s figures are also raised, with increases to both area and yield based on reports, which indicate larger area and favourable harvest results to date.
Significantly, international barley production looks set to increase in 2026/2027, reflecting larger crops for Turkey and Ukraine. These are partly offset by a reduction for India.