The European poultry industry had a strong year in 2025 as poultry consumption grew again by almost 3% while supply remained tight in the first three quarters due to avian influenza outbreaks in central and north-west Europe.
According to the latest report from RaboResearch by Rabobank, production gradually recovered in the second half of the year, mainly due to expansion of chicken production in Spain, Italy, Greece, Romania and Hungary.
The UK also expanded production by 30,000MT, despite several major retailers shifting stocking densities from 36kg to 30kg/m².
There has been an ongoing move to convert turkey and parent stock farms to broiler production due to historically higher profits in the broiler sector.
However, this shift has been so strong that combined with lower capacity and recent avian influenza outbreaks, parent stock and turkey supply has become very tight, according to the report.
As a result, both turkey and hatching egg prices have reached historic highs in Europe, while hatching egg and DOC availability remain tight, restricting industry growth.
High EU prices and avian influenza
EU exports dropped 3% in 2025 due to relatively high EU prices compared to global prices and export restrictions related to the many avian influenza outbreaks.
This was especially so for exports to African markets like DRC Congo, Benin, which were low due to increased Brazilian competition.
On the other hand, imports increased by 3% over the year, fully attributed to the first half of 2025 – exports in Q3 were 6% down year-on-year, and levels in Q4, 2025 returned to same levels as the corresponding quarter in 2024, especially for Thai and Chinese chicken imports which increased while Brazil was down due to avian influenza restrictions.
However, recent months have seen a fast rebound in Brazil exports to Europe.
Outlook for poultry
The outlook for the European poultry industry remains strong, according to RaboResearch, but likely slightly less bullish than in 2025.
The report indicates that a lot will depend on how avian influenza develops in the coming months as bird migration crosses central Europe in March to May.
The egg sector has been especially hit recently, according to RaboResearch.
If the number of outbreaks in poultry remains limited, some price erosion can be expected.
If there are major outbreaks in Q2, prices are expected to go up again.
The report states that, biosecurity will therefore be key, as the industry is still in high risk season.
Beef prices are still high, and this provides chicken with an ongoing strong position in the market.
The Middle East crisis will lead to more pressure on consumer wallets due to higher energy prices, the research indicates.
Exports might also be somewhat impacted by the Middle East crisis – Saudi Arabia is a major export market, but most can be transferred to the western ports.
From a cost perspective, corn and soybean supply still look good, and despite some drought in southern European markets, the early corn and wheat crop harvest projections look positive, which should support ongoing relatively low prices.
