Trade and global food security prospects may decline for products including coarse grains, rice, dairy and meat, according to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

Other products set to declined include vegetable oils, sugar, wheat, fish and oil crops.

The Food Outlook, a biannual publication on global food markets, provides a breakdown of the forecasts for the production, utilisation, trade and stocks of large food staples.

It shows that the decline has been influenced by a number of factors which pose risks for global food production systems, and which could possibly send delicate demand/supply balances into a decline.

These factors include extreme weather events, sudden policy changes, and rising geopolitical tensions.

Trade increase

FAO’s estimates for the global food import bill for 2023 is also included in the Food Outlook, which is predicted to reach $2 trillion in 2023, some $35.3 billion or 1.8% higher than in 2022.

The bulk of the increase is made up of beverages, fruit, vegetables and sugar.

There is also expected to be an 11% contraction in the aggregate food import bill for low-income countries.

The price effect is expected to be exceeded by the volume effect on the global food import bill, excluding high-value or processed products such as tea, coffee, spices and cocoa.

The report also touches on domestic price developments in net food-importing developing countries.

It also analyses the trends of the FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index (PI), which examines changes in prices, with regard to average global caloric and protein intakes.