It is now evident that issues of food and energy security will be long-term political and economic priorities due to ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf.
This is according to Dairy Council for Northern Ireland (DCNI) chief executive, Ian Stevenson.
“Much of this focus will centre on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that lies between the United Arab Emirates and Iran through which 20% of the world’s oil and 30% of global fertiliser supplies must travel before getting to market,” Stevenson said.
“Energy and fertiliser are two of the most important inputs required by production agriculture here in Northern Ireland.
“Prices of both commodities have increased dramatically over the last several weeks, and there’s little doubt that such trends will continue to have far-reaching consequences for the global cost of energy and food.
“The reality is that Iran will have a perceived control over the shipping that navigates the Strait of Hormuz long after actual hostilities in that region have ended,” he added.
The DCNI representative said that farmers across Northern Ireland need to refocus their business models in order to make optimal use of the inputs available.
“History tells us that local agriculture has always proved resilient to such global challenges. And no doubt this will be the case again in 2026,” he said.
But Stevenson firmly believes there is an upside to all of this, a trend that has been discernible for some time.
“Currently, farming and food processing in Northern Ireland produces enough high-quality nutritious food to meet the needs of 10 million people – five times the province’s population,” he continued.
“And dairy is at the very heart of this. Milk production levels here continue to increase with investments at farm level helping to secure greater volumes of milk per cow with improvements in genetics and technical efficiency also driving output.
“Meanwhile, our food processing sector continues to develop an expanding range of sought-after products.
“What’s more, this level of success can be built on for the future.”
Food security
Currently, UK food self-sufficiency levels are languishing around 62%.
This has dropped from a high of around 78% in 1984 to current levels.
With a reduction in national self-sufficiency comes a greater reliance on imports to fill the gap in delivering food security for the nation.
In 2024, the total value of imports of Food, Feed and Drink (FFD) to the United Kingdom was £64.1 billion.
It is a situation that prompted the Labour Party to coin the phrase ‘food security is national security’ prior to the 2024 General Election.
“That was 21 months ago, and given recent developments in the Persian Gulf, one can only assume that the issue of how the UK Government encourages higher levels of indigenous food production will become all the more important during the period ahead,” Stevenson added.
“But agriculture in Northern Ireland cannot rely on Westminster alone to drive the industry transformation that can deliver the myriad opportunities of further sustainable growth.
“This process must begin at a local level with Stormont and the various stakeholder organisations operating at the focal point of local farming and food taking a strong lead in this regard.”