The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has published updated 2025/2026 projections for grain supply and usage in the UK.
The figures relate to the 12-month period ending August 31 this year.
The estimates are based on the official production figures for wheat, barley, and oats published by the Department of Agriculture Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) courtesy of its Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production Survey.
Total cereals demand for animal feed in 2025/2026 is estimated at 13.453Mt, an increase of 149Kt from March’s estimate and 1% higher than 2024/2025.
According to AHDB analysts, a number of factors are contributing to this positive year-on-year trend, including higher consumption by Great Britain (GB) integrated poultry units (IPUs), GB cattle compounders and Northern Ireland (NI) compounders.
Cattle compound demand is expected to ease in the final three months of the season whilst IPUs are forecast to continue the current trend.
Estimates of the amount of cereals fed on farm have been revised upwards to levels comparable with the previous season.
Market comments indicate that grain is less available than had been previously forecast, which – all else assumed equal – suggests more has been consumed on farm or that supplies are less than indicated.
In 2025/2026, total cereals demand by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is estimated at 9.182Mt, 184Kt higher than March’s estimate but 12% lower than 2024/2025 levels.
Following government support, bio-ethanol production at Ensus, based in the north-east of England, resumed in April and is expected to continue this crop year with no indication, as yet, of production beyond this period.
This has increased wheat and, to a lesser extent, maize demand for H&I use.
Usage data to March shows the expected declines in usage for brewing, malting, and distilling (BMD) and flour milling, with forecasts in line with the previous estimates.
Wheat
At 16.188Mt, total availability of wheat in 2025/2026 is 50Kt higher than AHDB’s March estimate but lower than 2024/2025.
Imports are estimated at 2.250Mt, 50Kt higher than the previous estimate, but 818Kt lower than 2024/2025 levels.
From July 2025 to March 2026, the UK imported 1.867Mt of wheat, 536Kt less than the same point in 2024/2025.
However, regional variation is key with data to end-February showing strong demand for imported wheat to Northern Ireland, and a greater share of UK imports destined for NI ports than last year.
The import forecast assumes usage of imported grain will decline in the final three months of the season.
In 2025/2026, H&I demand for wheat is estimated at 6.640Mt, up 159Kt from March’s estimate but 466Kt down from 2024/2025 levels.
The increase from the previous estimate is driven by usage of wheat for bioethanol and starch with estimates included for Ensus to the end of June.
Lower than forecast flour extraction rates also contribute to the uplift; however, flour production and therefore wheat usage by millers continues to be lower.
Demand for wheat by distillers is also in decline as previously forecast.
The amount of wheat used in animal feed in 2025/2026 is estimated at 7.151Mt, 136Kt higher than March’s estimate but 309Kt up year-on-year.
The increase is driven by data to the end of March, with wheat usage by IPUs remaining strong, and adjustments to more typical levels of ‘fed-on-farm’ grain.