The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is confirming that world grain markets are continuing to gather momentum.
Recent days have seen another period of price support, with strong global demand and weather worries dominating market sentiment.
Significantly, May-26 Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures gained 2.9% and 2.1% respectively across the week ending Friday, April 24.
Weather
The main driver of the market gain was dry weather and worsening drought in the US Plains. The risk is especially high for hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Last week, the proportion of US winter wheat rated good or excellent was 30%, down from 34% the week prior. The market treated the ratings drop as confirmation that the Plains weather problem was real, not just a short-lived scare.
There were some rains at the end of last week that did reduce market support. However, this is a critical watch point for the market, with the United States Department of Agriculture due to provide an update to these scores Tuesday (April 28) evening.
Further to this, the World Meteorological Organization has forecast that there will be a strong El Niño weather event this year.
This weather phenomenon usually means drier weather across Asia and Australasia, and in the past has notably impacted Australia’s wheat production.
In Europe and the Black Sea, crop potential is also in focus. Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR revised its 2026 Russian wheat crop forecast down 1Mt to 90Mt, due to weather-related issues in the Central and Volga region.
Meanwhile, 83% of French soft wheat crops have been rated at good or excellent, down from 84% the week before.
Maize
It has also been reported that reported that 56% of French maize was planted last week, up from 31% the week before and 49% a year earlier.
Looking ahead, from now through to July, grain markets are likely to start factoring in a US maize planting premium as weather and planting pace shape crop expectations.
At the same time, the Middle East conflict is likely to keep markets volatile.
Input costs continue to fluctuate and steer spring planting intentions in the Northern Hemisphere, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market.
Weather is also having a strong impact on Irish grain prospects.
The continuing dry spell, combine with higher temperatures, has boosted the growth of all winter cereals after an extremely wet start to 2026.
The drilling of spring is now in full swing with the planting of forage maize set to get underway over the next couple of days.