US milk output has risen by just over 5.5% over the past 12 months, well above the long-term average of just 2%, according to Leprino Foods Europe chief executive, Paul Vernon.
Milk constituent levels have also risen significantly in the same period.
Vernon made the comments at a recent seminar hosted by the Northern Ireland Institute of Agricultural Science (NIIAS).
He added: “Milk production continues to rise in the US and, in the case of New Zealand, we are looking at an increase of 3.4% and are forecasting that the current production season will come in at a 2.6% increase, year-on-year.
“But personally, I think the actual figure will come in higher than this.
“The reality is that, even with the recent reductions in farm gate milk prices recently introduced by New Zealand milk buyers, dairy farmers in the country are still receiving above cost-of-production returns.”
According to the Leprino Foods representative, EU milk output rose by almost 5% over the past 12 months.
Vernon said: “Milk supply in Germany is very strong at the present time. Where the UK is concerned, we are looking at a year-on-year increase of some 6% while France is up 3% for the same period.
He noted that milk production in EU countries previously hit badly by bluetongue was badly impacted in 2024.
“However, the past 12 months have seen production levels recover tremendously well,” he added.
“Calving patterns were pushed back in Germany, France and The Netherlands, with the result that milk production in those countries during 2025 has been unseasonably high.”
Northern Ireland milk production
But it turns out that Northern Ireland has led the way in terms of the relative milk volumes produced over the past 12 months.
Vernon again: “Milk production in Northern Ireland rose by 4% in 2024. However, for the year-to date, this figure has risen by a further 8.5%.
“So, if the milk output figures in Northern Ireland for the first nine months of 2023 are compared with the same period in 2025, the actual increase comes in at 207 million litres. This is a staggering increase, in any sense of the term.
“And the factor driving all of this has been milk price.”
The Leprino Foods representative described the change in farm gate prices for milk in Northern Ireland over the past two years.
“The average milk paid to dairy farmers in Northern Ireland during 2023 was 35p/L pence per litre, Vernon said.
“By 2024, this figure had risen to 43p, with the first nine months of 2025 registering a further average increase up to 43.6p
“And it is these strong milk prices that have been driving milk output on a global basis since the beginning of 2024.”
