Emerging economies are expected to drive growth in animal-source food consumption and production over the coming decade, a report released today has revealed.
The Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 report was released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).
The report indicates that production and calorie intake of animal-source products are expected to increase as incomes rise in middle-income countries, but further increases in food production through improvements in agricultural productivity will be necessary to reduce under-nourishment and agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a global level.
The secretary-general of OECD, Mathias Cormann believes that well-coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open, while fostering long-term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agriculture sector.
Speaking at the launch of the report this morning, Cormann said: “This does not have to come at the expense of environmental sustainability, indeed our analysis shows that we can reduce carbon emissions from agriculture by 7% by 2034, while improving food security at the same time.
“Achieving this objective will require increasing productivity in agriculture using sustainable techniques and increasing their productivity by at least 15%,” he added.
Global production
Global production of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to expand by about 14% through to 2034, mainly enabled by productivity gains in middle-income countries.
However, the report outlines that this growth entails expanded animal herds and crop land areas.
The output of meat, dairy products, and eggs is also set to increase by 17%, however total global inventories of cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry will expand by 7%.
According to the report, these developments will lead to a 6% increase in direct agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next decade, reflecting a declining carbon intensity of global direct emissions associated with on-farm production.
The report also highlights that projected productivity improvements are expected to put downward pressure on real agricultural commodity prices.
Finally, report suggests that this could pose “significant challenges” for smallholder farmers who are vulnerable to market volatility, and have limited capacity to adopt innovative technologies needed to increase productivity.
