The Scottish government has published its first production estimates for Harvest 2025, covering barley, wheat, oats, and oilseed rape.
As many analysts had previously predicted, the growing season just past had thrown up numerous challenges for growers.
Barley
Spring barley production is predicted to be around 1.65 million tonnes in 2025, close to the previous five-year average.
This is a 1% decrease on 2024, as a result of a small decrease in planted area.
Despite the dry conditions, a reasonable spring barley performance is anticipated overall. However, industry experts are reporting high rejection rates for malting quality, and predict a high surplus of barley for feed.
Winter barley production is predicted to be around 381,000t in 2025. This is a 16% increase compared to 2024 and mostly driven by a 15% increase in yield.
Winter barley predictions see yield increase to around 8.8t/ha, which would be a record-high for this crop.
Wheat
Wheat production is predicted to increase to 1,019,000t. This is a 23% increase compared to 2024, resulting from a predicted 12% increase in yield and a 10% increase in sown area.
Variations in yield are reported between different soil types, affecting harvest results at farm level and across planted areas on farm.
Oats
According to the Scottish government, oat production estimates are not as reliable as those of other crops.
This is due to the limited data available at this early stage.
But the early indication is that small increases in yield and a 7% increase in area may drive an increase in oats production to above the previous five-year average.
Oilseed rape
Oilseed rape production is predicted to increase 15% to 152,000t, despite an 11% decrease in area.
Industry experts report that is has been a good year for winter oilseed rape, with farms recording very high yields.
Overall yield is predicted to reach a record high of around 4.7t/ha.
Again, oilseed rape estimates are not as reliable as those of other crops due to the small amount grown and limited data available at this early stage.
The first Harvest 2025 estimates for Scotland were recently agreed at a bespoke crop report meeting.
A panel of experts from the Scottish cereal industry provided their estimates of the harvest yields and these are applied to final figures for areas sown.
Provisional area data is derived from the 2025 June Agricultural Census.
