May-26 UK feed wheat futures have increased slightly over recent days, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).
Markets closed at £168.30/t for the week ending Friday, February 20, up £1.30/t on the previous seven days.
Driving much of this were the addition of marginal risk premium into prices as concerns grow over weather uncertainties.
Furthermore, market dealers short-covering due to US-Iranian-fuelled tensions, as the US strategically moves assets to Europe and the Middle East, resulted in upward price pressure.
Wheat
Chicago and Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) gained 5.8% and 3.9%, respectively, week-on-week.
The main weather driver across the week was concerns in the US plains over dryness and recent winter kill. The US wheat crop will be assessed as it emerges from dormancy.
In Europe, excessive rains are marginally deteriorating crop conditions, notably in eastern parts of France.
FranceAgriMer rated 88% of French soft wheat as good to excellent (to February 16), down from 91% the week prior, but still significantly better than last year (74%).
Maize
Last week was the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, which gives one of the first insights into the soy/maize plantings for the new marketing year.
The USDA estimated maize plantings at 38.0Mha, down almost 5% year-on-year and below London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) expectations of 38.4Mha.
The reduction in maize area was expected given the price ratio between US maize and soyabeans.
Moreover, these numbers are based on 10-year baseline projections, and the numbers in the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, due March 31, could change.
The most critical watch points for the global market in the next few weeks are assessing the winter kill damage across the US and Europe and the planting of the Brazilian second maize crop, which will start to increase. The market has priced in this large Brazilian supply, so any disruptions could mean market support.
