The Scotch Whisky Association has welcomed what it regards as the ‘transformational’ trade deal confirmed between the UK and India.
Mark Kent, chief executive of the association said that the free trade agreement is a once-in-a-generation deal and a landmark moment for Scotch whisky’s access to the world’s largest whisky market.
Kent said: “The reduction of the current 150% tariff on Scotch whisky will be transformational for the industry.
“The deal has the potential to increase Scotch whisky exports to India by £1bn over the next five years and create 1,200 jobs across the UK.”
Meanwhile, the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is pointing out that, for some time, the narrative around UK malting barley demand has been somewhat lacklustre.
The trend of fewer younger people drinking has capped growth in usage by the brewing, malting, and distilling (BMD) sector.
Demand for barley
Human and industrial (H&I) usage (mainly made up of BMD demand) of barley in 2024/25 is expected to fall for the second consecutive year, according to the most recent UK cereal supply and demand estimates.
At 1.782Mt, barley H&I usage this season is 7% down year-on-year and 4% on the previous five-year average.
AHDB analysts also point out that while it is likely that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs may impact UK whisky trade, the new deal with India has the potential to outweigh any possible drop in demand from the US.
The UK-India trade deal also has the potential to bolster UK malting demand at a time when trends are pointing to a reduced domestic demand.
Figures produced by AHDB indicate a total UK barley availability figure of 8.484Mt in 2024/25. This is up 50Kt year-on-year.
The estimate of full season barley imports remains at 175Kt, down 26Kt year-on-year but well above the five-year average.
From July 2024 to January 2025, the UK imported 124Kt of barley, with the pace expected to slow throughout the remainder of the season.
H&I barley usage is estimated at 1.782 Mt, down 56Kt from January’s estimate and 128kt lower on the year.
The decline year-on year and from January is driven by sluggish BMD demand, which can be partly attributed to the increase in the cost of living.
At 4.374Mt, usage of barley in animal feed is relatively unchanged from the previous estimate, but 189Kt higher than in 2023/24.
Due to its relative availability and competitive price to wheat this season, barley is featuring in compound feed rations at a higher rate in 2024/25.
However, the increase is largely due to a rise in fed-on-farm usage, again, due to its price relative to wheat and pressure on malting barley premiums.
