AHDB projects significant drop in UK maize imports

The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is projecting a significant fall-off in the level of maize imported into the UK for the trading year July 2025 to June 2026.

Having first pointed to this trend last November, the organisation has followed this up with a more forthright assertion in its UK cereal supply and demand projections, published at the end of January.

There are two key drivers in this regard; a fall-off in UK bio-ethanol production; and a key switch from maize to wheat made by feed compounders in Northern Ireland, specifically where poultry rations are concerned.

In 2025/2026, total availability of maize is estimated at 2.370Mt, down 114Kt from November’s estimate and 934Kt lower than 2024/2025 levels.

Imports

The drop in availability from the previous estimates and on the year is due to a fall in imports.

With a halt in bioethanol demand and domestic cereals pricing competitively for feed, maize imports are expected to be much lower this season at 2.173Mt.

At 557Kt, human and industrial (H&I) maize usage is relatively unchanged (-9 Kt) from November’s estimate, but 509Kt down year-on-year, driven by the reduction in bioethanol demand.

Animal feed demand for maize is 105Kt lower than the previous estimate and 193 Kt down on the year.

The further reduction from the previous estimates is partly driven by lower volumes being fed on farm, along with more wheat being used in Northern Ireland at the expense of maize.

Meanwhile, the maize supply and demand balance in 2025/2026 is estimated at 340 Kt, unchanged from November but 231Kt down year-on-year.

Exports have been revised up by 50Kt since November to 190Kt, while closing stocks are forecast at 150Kt, down 50Kt from the previous estimate.

Oats

Where oats are concerned, AHDB is estimating UK production levels at 1.119Mt. This figure is down 23Kt from November’s estimate but 24Kt higher year-on-year.

Oat production is now estimated at 963Kt, down 23Kt from the provisional and 22Kt lower year on year.

Full season imports are estimated at 15Kt, unchanged from November, and very similar to 2024/2025.

In 2025/2026, H&I usage of oats is estimated at 512Kt, marginally higher (8Kt) than November’s estimate and 21Kt up on the year. No major changes are expected for H&I oat demand this season.

UK oat usage in animal feed is relatively unchanged from November’s estimate at 411Kt and 45Kt higher year on year.

The increase on the year is largely driven by an uptick in oats fed on farm, given the mixed quality of the 2025 crop.

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