Prospects for 2014 indicate an above average EU cereal harvest for the second year in a row (and a record level of cereal exports for marketing year 2013/14), according to the Commission’s Summer 2014 Short-Term Agricultural Outlook published yesterday.

Consolidated figures for 2013/14 confirm an above average cereal harvest of 302 million tonnes, supporting a record level of exports expected to reach 42 million tonnes. As a consequence, carry-over stocks are limited and the stock-to-use ratio is expected to recover only partially from 10 to 12%. The new harvest in 2014/15 is expected to be above average for the second year in a row and reach 303 million tonnes. Given the export performance, only a partial recovery of the cereal stock-to-use ratio is expected.

Today’s report also¬†outlined that after two years of tight supply, EU meat production is expected to grow again. The mild economic recovery in the EU raises the prospect of increased meat consumption, but meat exports are seen as likely to decline, with pig and poultry meat being the most affected sectors, following growing uncertainty in some of the most important trade partners.

Milk deliveries in the EU were at an all-time high in the first four months of this year. Nevertheless, milk prices remained firm and largely above last year given strong export demand, especially for milk powders. Over the whole year, the expected milk production increase is close to 3%.