The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is reporting that global grain markets remained under pressure over recent days.
Both May-25 Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures were down 3.6% and 0.8% respectively for the seven-day period ending Thursday, April 24.
In addition, movement in global markets has contributed to a fall in UK grain prices, with May-25 feed wheat futures down 5.7% over the same period.
Earlier this week, the European Commission released its April 2025 crop monitoring report.
This has estimated yields of total wheat, total barley, rye, triticale, and rape and turnip rape, all increasing or remained unchanged from last month’s estimates.
Grain markets
According to AHDB analysts, the report has added some bearish sentiment to European grain prices.
However, with the drier conditions as of late and delays to spring planting in some areas, the European Commission has subsequently revised down its EU wheat production forecast for harvest 2025 to 126.3Mt, compared to 126.5Mt a month ago.
But, in tandem with this, the commission also increased its stocks outlook, with more supplies expected to be left over from this season that initially had been anticipated.
Meanwhile, the FranceAgriMer agency has released its latest crop condition scores, rating 74% of the country’s crop in good or excellent condition by April 21.
This is down from 75% a week earlier on the back of dry conditions, but still well above a score of 63% at the same point last year.
Maize plantings are also progressing ahead of the usual rate, now estimated to be 50% complete, compared to 39% a week earlier, and a five-year average of 42%.
However, it is being reported that Ukrainian farmers had planted just 2.0Mha of grain by 24 April, back 17% from the same point last year.
The reason for this is reportedly snow across most regions of the country, and unusually cold weather at the beginning of April delaying progress.
In addition, currency fluctuations over the last few weeks have continued to impact on the relationship between UK, European and US markets.
Since the start of the month, the euro has strengthened by 2% and 5% against the British pound sterling and US dollar respectively, leading to greater pressure on Paris futures.
However, the past week has seen some stabilisation, with the euro weakening over the last couple of days. But all of this could change again during the period ahead.
