U.S. wheat stocks set to be largest in 29 years

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected to be 10 million bushels higher than last year, making it the largest U.S. wheat ending stocks since 1987.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has also forecast increased global stocks of wheat, maize and soybeans for the end of the 2015/16 season.

According to USDA‘s latest estimates released this week, global wheat stock figures were upgraded by almost 2MT to 239MT from its March forecast.

The forecast results from increased output figures from revised government data in the EU and Argentina, in particular.

Lower than expected animal feed usage in China, the US and Brazil also played a part in the increased forecast.

In the US, as a result of the lower feed figure, end-season stocks were increased by a further 0.3MT to 26.6MT, which is the highest now for 29 seasons,” said Helen Plant, Senior Analyst at AHDB Market Intelligence.

U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are also projected to increase for corn, barley, and oats.

Global coarse grain exports for 2015/16 are raised by 3.5 million tons as increases for corn and barley more than offset a small reduction for sorghum.

Maize & Soybeans On The Rise

The Global maize 2015/16 end-season stocks forecasts were raised by almost 2MT from USDA‘s March report, and are now projected at 209MT.

According to AHDB Market Intelligence this reflects:

  • Retrospective changes to opening stock and demand figures for Japan going back a number of years, plus revised 2014/15 supply and demand figures for Argentina.
  • A 2.5MT increase to global output in 2015/16, including increases for Argentina and Mexico.
  • Overall demand was up 3MT, largely to due increased animal feed figures but also higher usage by US ethanol producers.

Soybean 2015/16 end-season stocks were increased by 0.2MT from the March report to 79MT.

According to AHDB this is due to:

  • Higher opening stock figures, due to retrospective revisions in the 2014/15 season (mainly affecting Brazil), were largely offset by a 0.6MT higher 2015/16 demand forecast.
  • An increase to the Argentine production number (+0.5MT to 59MT) was offset by a comparable reduction for India, both due to revised yield expectations.

“However, US stocks were lowered by 0.4Mt to 12.1MT, reflecting higher demand from China and other countries,” Plant said.