Why is the international wheat market on the rise?

The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is confirming that May-26 UK feed wheat market futures are on the rise.

They gained £0.70/t, or 0.4%, last week and ended on Friday, March 2 at £169.00/t.

Driving this trend was a a combination of factors, such as the current US-Iran tensions and mixed weather for those winter wheat crops now in the ground.

Significantly, tenders by major global importers – including those by Algeria and Saudi Arabia – also added support.

But high global supplies and competition for exports limited gains, according to AHDB.

May-26 Paris wheat futures and Chicago wheat futures gained 1.3% and 1.9% respectively between 20 and 27 February.

Meanwhile, key new crop (Dec-26) contracts in both futures’ markets gained 1.9% over the same period.

Meanwhile, there have been forecasts of rain for winter wheat growing areas in the US, where dry conditions are a growing watch point.

However, as last week progressed, prices recovered as the geopolitical situation and risk aversion took centre stage.

European grain markets

Rising barley exports have been a key trend within European grain markets over recent months.

The EU Commission reported that 6.21Mt of barley passed customs between July 01 and February 22, with Saudi Arabia (1.38Mt) and China (0.89Mt) the top destinations.

Historically high rainfall levels have impacted on most of western Europe since the beginning of the year.

However, it seems that winter cereal crops are holding up well, despite the extremely wet ground conditions.

France, for example, is confirming that 84% of its winter wheat crops are currently rated good or excellent. The equivalent figure for 2025 was 73%.

But the continuing wet weather is having an impact on spring planting rates.

France is reporting that only 32% of the country’s spring planting area has been planted out at this stage: well below the five-year average figure.

However, there is the prospect of drier weather conditions prevailing this week.

Soybean

Across the Atlantic, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting an increase in soybean production for the year ahead.

Supplies are projected to increase 5% in 2026/2027 on higher beginning stocks and production.

The soybean planted area is forecast to rise by nearly four million acres, reflecting stronger profitability compared to other crops, along with expected crop rotations.

In contrast, the maize planted area is expected to come in at 94.0 million acres for 2026/2027, down 4.8 million from a year ago.

Overall, the US maize outlook for 2026/2027 is for reduced production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks.

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