The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is projecting an almost 30% increase in the UK’s planted area of oilseed rape for 2025/26, relative to the previous year.
The organisation’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) of planting activity is also reflecting the impact of near perfect ground and weather conditions availed of by farmers throughout the UK during the autumn period.
The data referenced by AHDB in the survey is collated from official provisional estimates for England and Scotland, combined with estimated areas for Wales and Northern Ireland.
The EBS captures early plantings and planting intentions as of late October and early November.
Forecasts
The forecasts for harvest 2026 show a rise in the oilseed rape area from last year’s low level, along with a small increase in wheat plantings, but lower areas for barley and oats.
Autumn drilling conditions were generally good in 2025, contrasting with the wet start to the autumn drilling window last year and extremely wet conditions in autumn 2023.
However, AHDB is also pointing to the fact that the market environment is challenging with lower prices for cereals and lower milling and malting premiums, plus increased costs for all crops.
Against this backdrop, oilseed rape likely benefited from a more favourable margin outlook compared to other crops, as well as the good yields achieved in 2025.
The poor cereal yields of the past two years, along with ongoing commitments to agri-environment schemes and rotation needs, are also likely to be influencing 2025/2026 planting plans.
Oilseed rape
Oilseed rape is the stand out for 2025/2026, with a 30% rise to 316Kha (kilohectare).
While this is a significant year-on-year rise, the rise is from the 42-year low recorded in 2025 and the 2026 projection would still be clearly below 2023’s 391Kha.
It is also interesting to note that the area of oilseed rape in the UK is set to rise against the continuing threat of cabbage stem flea beetle attack.
As is often the case when the oilseed rape area rises, the area of pulses is expected to fall for harvest 2026 by an estimated 12%.
The total UK wheat area is forecast to increase slightly (+1%) to 1,675Kha, though with variation across the country.
While spring wheat remains a small part of the total area, it’s important to note a sharp drop in planned spring wheat plantings from the elevated levels in 2025.
The forecast wheat area would remain below the 2021-2025 average of 1,704Kha.
The winter barley area is estimated to fall a further 2% to 356Kha, while spring barley plantings are expected to decline sharply (-15%) to 610Kha.
If realised, this would put the total UK barley area for harvest 2026 at 965Kha, the lowest level since 2010.
The oats area is also expected to decline, down 14% to a projected 170Kha, which would be just above the area seen in 2023.
The area of other combinable cereals is forecast up 7% from 2025. However, crops of smaller area had a lesser area coverage in the survey, so these results will be subject to greater uncertainty.
The last ‘catch-all’ category ‘other crops on arable land’ gains 4% and includes sugar beet, potatoes, vegetables and other crops that appear in the arable farm rotation such as temporary grass and maize.
The EBS is focused on the arable farm rotation rather than all arable land which would include grass and forage rotations.
For this reason, an estimate of the total area of these crops that appear in the arable rotation are used in this figure.
After the area declined in 2025, the survey also points to an 8% increase in uncropped arable land in 2026.
This category would include non-productive land requiring options under the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) in England as well as rotational fallow and more.
Background to EBS
The EBS is undertaken each autumn to assess national cropping intentions.
It is carried out by The Andersons Centre with help from agronomists from the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC).
In total, nearly 70 agronomists took part in the survey contributing 600Kha of arable land across the UK to establish cropping changes on farms as a representation for the national change in cropping.
The survey was mainly struck during late October, with most data collected by November 1, though submissions were received up to November 7.
In previous years, the survey has been an accurate estimate of planted areas and therefore a strong indication of harvest areas for the following year.
Final adjusted results including a breakdown of regional data for the main crops will be published following publication of the final UK June survey results for 2025, which is scheduled for release in mid-December.
