The Central Association of Agricultural Valuers (CAAV) has called on the UK government to prioritise access to fuel for the arable sector to “avoid crops rotting in fields this summer and enable autumn sowing”.
Based on CAAV’s latest calculations, the group warned that Northern Ireland, England, Scotland, and Wales “will soon start to see real impacts of the crisis” in the Middle East, urging for government action now to ensure continued access to food.
As a secretary and adviser for CAAV, Jeremy Moody noted that “reviews of the oil market by sector experts point to critically low global levels by the end of May and stocks exhausted by the end of June.”
He said: “So far, the major impacts have been on Aouth-East Asian manufacturing, but the seismic waves are coming towards [the UK too].
“We all need to be thinking now how to make the best of remaining supplies as fuel and other goods come to be limited by price, shortages or controls.”
Supplies
CAAV highlighted that the arable sector is particularly at risk due to its high dependence on fuel for harvesting, raw materials for plastics, and carbon dioxide (CO2) for packaging.
The valuers emphasised that the UK’s complex food supply chains can be “extremely vulnerable”, as seen during the Covid pandemic.
“Restriction of supplies will, in the first instance, push food prices higher, and subsequently, risk halting them altogether,” CAAV warned.
Arable
In addition to this, Moody outlined that even if the war ends in the near future, there will be a “time lag” before supplies return to normality.
He commented: “Physically blocking 20% and more of world supplies of oil and other commodities for months will inevitably have major consequences.
“The prospect of a long blockade extends that timetable, with long-term consequences for UK farming and food supply.”
CAAV alerted that domestic production of wheat and barley could be “severely curtailed as arable farmers may decide to cut back on how land they plant this autumn following three years of financial losses” in the sector.
“Low commodity prices and extreme weather meant arable producers lost money in 2023, 2024 and 2025, and now soaring input costs have added to the mix when looking ahead to 2027,” the group of valuers went on to say.
Agricultural diesel
Based on the latest figures, CAAV estimated that red diesel costs have soared from £0.65/L to £1.40/L, with nitrogen fertiliser reportedly up by 53% compared to last year.
CAAV stated that “harvest 2026 is predicted to lose an average of £56/ac, rising to a loss of £139/ac for harvest 2027.”
Moody said: “Across a 500ac farm, that equates to losses of £28,000 and £69,500, respectively.
“The cumulative losses point to a significant strain on cash flow and credit, limiting farmers’ ability to plant even where they are minded to do so.”
CAAV suggested that it is possible that the Middle East conflict’s impact on the agricultural sector could constitute the ‘exceptional circumstances’ referenced in Section 20 of the Agriculture Act 2020, which would warrant official government intervention.
“The situation should be under close review by the UK government’s market monitoring group, with appropriate options identified,” Moody added.